Thoughts on the Local Rut

Well, our local rut is only a few weeks away and folks are getting excited about bagging that trophy buck. ABailey spoke for many of us when he recently asked for advice on the Pensacola Fishing Forum about when to take off from work to take best advantage of the rut. [Click here for ABailey’s post.]

It would be great if we could come up with a magic formula that predicts where and when the big bucks will be moving.   One problem is that the rut is not a well-defined point in time. It is actually a series of different deer behaviors that take place over a number of weeks, each providing different opportunities for the hunter. Furthermore, the timing of that activity is affected by a number of factors that we can’t predict, don’t control, and probably don’t even completely understand. 

The Pro Hunters Journal article “The 2011 Rut” gives some great information about four distinct rut phases. [Click here to read the PHJ article.] Charlie Alsheimer’s ”Assessing the Moon’s Impact on the Whitetail Rut” provides additional advice on how to best hunt each phase, though he disregards the pre and post-rut phases and concentrates on seeking, chasing and breeding. [Click here for Alsheimer’s article.] Though the dates used are for northern and mid-western states, the information in both articles is complementary and may be applied in our local region.

The tricky part for those of us who can’t take four weeks off to hunt is nailing down the timing. A distance of only five miles can make a huge difference and factors as varied as daytime temperature, adult-doe-to-antlered-buck ratios, and the level of human activity can alter the timing and intensity of deer activity. Likewise, too much or too little moonlight at the wrong time can make it easier for the big bucks to move more at night.

So, what about that moon theory? Alsheimer’s advice concerning the second full moon after the autumnal equinox might be good up north, but it does not help the southern hunter at all. When asked about this, he replied: “… in some parts of Florida peak breeding is in December and, in some parts, January.  … Once the breeding month is known, you can plan on seeing chasing ramp up 2 – 3 days after the full moon, with prime breeding occurring 5 – 21 days after the full moon.”

The end of January / early February is the primary breeding time in Northwest Florida and the January 2012 full moon will occur on January 9. If Alsheimer is right, then that would have the chasing stage ramping up around January 11-12, with prime breeding taking place January 14–30. However, recent Florida data tend to shift these dates to the right.

In response to ABailey’s question, JoeZ was kind enough to share the results of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s “Deer Breeding Chronology Project 2009 – 2011.” [Click here to see the results.] The study showed the average conception date for Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties north of I-10 was in the February 9 – 12 range. (South of I-10 was a week or so later.) Alsheimer notes that of all the phases, the breeding time can be the most difficult to hunt. This is because does move very little during this period and the bucks will only move when the does move. That implies that your chances of seeing a buck improve as you move earlier in the cycle, back toward the last week in January when does and bucks are moving around more.

I have plowed through a lot of forums and talked to a lot of hunters trying to get to the bottom of this question and the advice seems pretty consistent.

• Ask the locals and make sure you ask a bunch of them because you’re likely to find a lot of differences of opinion.
• Begin scouting the areas you intend to hunt.  Be in the field or be in touch with buddies who are so you can be aware of the signs of the various stages as they develop and can adjust your techniques accordingly.
• Start keeping a hunting journal. You will be amazed at how keeping good records will help you recognize the different phases and be more accurate at predicting the timing of them from year to year. The Pro Hunters Journal article has a link to a free journal format that can help you get started.

The responses to ABailey’s inquiry predominantly favored the last week in January and the first week in February as the prime times for being in the woods. After considering all of this material, the phases and rising / setting times for the moon, and thinking back on my experience hunting this area, my recommendation to ABaily is to focus on being in the woods the week of January 26 – February 2.

In the end there is always the luck factor and no amount of figuring can totally eliminate that. It is still a crap shoot, but hopefully this discussion has helped you figure out how to play your chips a little bit smarter. I really look forward to any comments on this analysis and encourage you to stay in touch as the results roll in. Good luck and Good Hunting!

“From shot to wall, we do it all.”