More Thoughts on the Local Rut

There has been quite a bit of chatter since I posted Thoughts on the Local Rut a couple of weeks ago. The buzz has brought some folks into the discussion who are new to the area and new to deer hunting , and has even caused some old hands to think differently. It has also brought some great contributions in the form of tools and information, like a camp fire stew where everyone contributes something to the pot.

This all started when ABailey followed Rule #1 and “asked the locals” on Pensacola Fishing Forum about the best timing to hunt the rut. He was trying to figure out when to take his hunting vacation, and “the month of January” would not work! Most agreed on the last week in January and the first week in February. Unfortunately, that was still more time than he could be in the woods in one stretch.

Clearly, there’s no lack of deer. Santa Rosa, Okaloosa and Esambia Counties had a combined harvest of just shy of 27,000 in 2010, so there’s plenty of opportunity to bag an odocoileus virginianus or two. But when most of us saddle up and head for the woods we don’t just have any deer in mind. We’re after that once-in-a-lifetime dream trophy to hang on the wall and tell lies about.

The good news is that the northern-tier counties not only have lots of deer, they also produce the majority of Florida’s record deer. This is not the Midwest, but there are some pretty decent bucks afoot if you know where and when to hunt them. Also, this seems to be a jubilee year for acorns and I am already seeing deer with some extra pounds.

Since 1982, the Florida Buck Registry has recorded the number and rack size of White-tails taken with at least 100 Boone and Crockett points typical / 125 non-typical. The system isn’t perfect – reporting is voluntary and dealing with the scoring bureaucracy can be awkward, so there are hunters who simply don’t bother to register their kills – but the data give at least a sense of large-buck activity tracked over nearly 30 years under differing conditions.

I pulled the Registry data for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties and focused on the harvest dates between January 15 and February 15. The results were interesting:

• Since 1982, there have been 58 qualifying deer taken in the last two weeks of January, but only 33 qualifying deer taken the first two weeks of February.

• The drop in activity was dramatic. The records show 15 qualifying deer taken January 28 – 31, with only 7 taken February 1 – 3.

 So, assuming hunting success is influenced by deer movement, the larger bucks appear to move around a lot the last of January but are less active the first part of February. 

Another state study estimated that the average conception date in the three-county area fell within the second week of February. Clearly, during the first week in February those bucks were finding increasing numbers of does coming into estrus and were bedding down with them. Let’s face it, snuggling up to a young lovely beats getting shot any day. While that explains the lack of activity in February, it still leaves the question: When is the best time to go out after these beasties in January?

That question prompted Reelfun27 to add a great tool to our bag of tricks. He vectored us to a free site that calculates solunar tables for any particular location. The solunar theories predict fish and other animal activity based on sun and moon positions. Now, some people swear by solunar forecasts while others swear at them. Whatever your inclination, the history, description and limitations of the theory are discussed here in clear terms on one page.

I have become interested in learning more about the solunar effect since my Kansas trip. I chose Crestview as a test case since it is centrally located in the three-county area and is midway between Blackwater and Eglin. [If you go to the site you can enter the latitude – longitude of your favorite honey spot.] The seven-day forecast showed a clear peak at “excellent” potential on January 23, with an emphasis on hunting in the morning. This was followed by a forecast decline to “average” and “good” throughout the rest of January and the first week of February. [For tired eyes, click on the image to enlarge.]

Clicking on the bars for January 23, I was then given a more detailed 24-hour forecast for that day.[Click on the image to enlarge.]

So what do we make of all of this? It sounds like we’re looking into the guts of a dead cat to predict the future. Here’s what I take away:

• For me, this helps explain a bit more of the history that supports the last week in January as the prime time during the rut to go after that trophy buck.
• You still have to apply all of the skill and discipline of a good hunter. There is nothing magic about history or future prediction.
• A weather front or some tenderfoot walking through your shooting lane can still ruin the best of plans.
• We are playing the odds here.
• My advice to ABailey was to be in the woods Jan 26 – Feb 2. I have now shifted my thinking to Jan 23 – 31, with a special emphasis on morning hunts in the earlier part of the week. [Grassflatsfisher was right on with his advice to ABailey!]

My thanks to ABailey for asking the question and getting us started. My thanks also to JoeZ, Reelfun27, Grassflatsfisher, Travis12Allen and all of the others who have contributed to the discussion.

My apologies to all of the Alabama hunters. The data I had about average conception dates, the Florida Buck Registry, and so forth were all from Florida so I chose to focus on this area. We all know there are some fine bucks up yonder.

If I were a buck I would be getting nervous about now. Good Luck and Good Hunting!

 “From shot to wall, we do it all.”